[dropcap]B[/dropcap]eing an avid follower of the English Premier League this season has effectively turned any form of football predictions into a poisoned chalice. After witnessing relegation favourites win the league, it’s just simply impossible to claim something with any certainty.
And so to Euro 2016. It might just be a strange paranoia from being so horrifically wrong at the start of the season that makes naming a winner for Europe’s greatest footballing showcase such a tough task, but whilst specific predictions may be too hard to call, there does appear to be groups of teams with similar outcomes emerging.
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The Big Four – France, Germany, Spain, England
Three of these teams may come as no surprise when looking at the potential semi-final outfits. But England? Natural pessimism from the nation’s supporters probably shadows the genuine possibility that England could win their first major competition in 50 years.
The major threat is the strikeforce of Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane, who notched 49 goals between them in the league this season. Whereas hopes have often relied on the temperamental Wayne Rooney, now it seems that England have a consistent, potent offensive engine, providing Roy Hodgson finally concedes that Vardy isn’t a left-winger.
France have been touted as favourites by many corners of the footballing world, and with some justification. They’re hosts, have a skilful squad, and never have they utterly capitulated at a major stage before. There have been indications of fractures already, particularly surrounding the omission of Karem Benzema, however the hosts are brimming with talent courtesy of Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann and Anthony Martial.
Realistically, neighbours Germany pose the greatest challenge. After all, they are the reigning world champions, and it’d be foolish to overlook them in the slightest. The squad is proven at the highest level, and key players Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller and Mats Hummels have all had stellar domestic seasons. It’d also be naïve to overlook Spain, despite a poor showing in 2014.
They’ve won the past two European Championships, and there’s no doubting the talent they offer, despite it being ever-so-slightly aged. Will Vincent del Bosque rely on the old guard of Fabregas, Casillas and Iniesta, or will the fledgling young stars like Alvaro Morata and Hector Bellerin shine through? Disregard them at your own risk, as a team capable of leaving Juan Mata behind deserve to be taken seriously.
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The Dark Horses – Austria, Croatia, Ireland
It’s always fun to choose an outside bet before the tournament starts. If they win, you can be that annoying prick down the pub who brags for weeks on end about their psychic soccer ability. And obviously if you’re wrong, it’s forgotten about instantly.
Austria, Croatia and Ireland have all been touted – along with others – to be the dark horses of the tournament. Austria qualified with a near-impeccable record, dropping points only at home to Sweden. Granted Russia, Moldova and Liechtenstein weren’t the toughest of tasks, but it at least proves that Austria are in a league above the others. Marko Arnautovic, Marc Janko and Martin Harnik are the biggest threats, and they also have a Premiership winner; none other than Leicester’s Christian Fuchs.
Croatia have a nice blend of experience and youth going to France, and it’s unlikely that legends Darijo Srna and Luka Modric will falter. It’s also worth noting that Ivans Perisic and Rakitic are arguably in their prime, and Croatia’s main pro is their balance. It doesn’t seem like they’d be relying on one particular area too much unlike some other teams that shall remain nameless, who will be hoping one player can bale them out.
Ireland have also slipped under the radar slightly, and if it wasn’t for their hellishly difficult group (Belgium, Italy, Sweden), they’d have a real chance. If their old but experienced squad can drag them out of the group, the hardest test would already be out of the way.
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The Debutants – Wales, Albania, Northern Ireland, Iceland, Slovakia
It’s the blind leading the blind here when trying to assess these newbies’ chances. Sadly for Wales, this dream could be over too soon. Granted they have the world’s most expensive footballer, but the rest of the squad can hardly be considered world class, or European class for that matter. Without Bale it’s difficult to see where the creativity and ingenuity will come from, and form coming into the tournament is dreadful – just one win in seven. Regarding the other British nation, Northern Ireland are actually in terrific form, having not lost in ten games. Unlike Wales, there’s no major expectations surrounding Northern Ireland, so the pressure will be lifted slightly, especially considering their tough group (Germany, Ukraine, Poland). The majority of the squad play outside of the top flight too, so it’ll be an uphill battle for Michael O’Neill’s men.
Iceland and Albania are probably the most unknown quantities going to France, as neither have ever made a major tournament before. Iceland at least have some recognisable faces in Gylfi Sigurdsson, goal machine Kolbeinn Sigthorsson and nomad Eidur Gudjohsen, but are still amongst the weakest squads in France. Although possessing an impressively youthful squad, Albania have no obvious stars (at least to this ignorant writer), and their highest scorer in their squad has a mere five goals. It doesn’t seem too good does it?
Although Slovakia’s qualifying campaign fizzled out near the end, they still made it and have been in impressive form recently, defeating Germany to name but one. They’re unbeaten in eight, and have a solid chance of progressing from their group at the expense of Wales and Russia. Surprisingly the Slovaks have brought just two strikers on the plane, but the goals tend to come from Napoli’s Marek Hamisk. That said, all four of Michal Duris’ international goals have come recently, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can continue this form. Probably the best equipped of the Euro virgins.
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The Underachievers – Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal
This category is reserved for the teams that have always promised, but never really delivered as much as they should’ve. Despite being the best team in Europe according to Fifa’s world rankings, few are actually expecting Belgium to triumph come July. They have an exceptionally gifted generation of footballers right now, from Eden Hazard to Romelu Lukaku, and Thibaut Courtois to Toby Alderweireld. But the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, so it’s whether the players can finally gel as to how far they progress.
The main concern with Italy is the lack of experience, particularly in the striking department. By no means is Graziano Pelle a poor striker, but his 13 caps is hardly anything to shout about. Surprisingly three of these ‘underachievers’ are in the same group: Italy, Belgium and Sweden accompany Ireland, so it’s likely one of them will fall at the wayside. Sweden have always flirted with becoming a top European side but have simply never made that leap, and this will likely be the fabled Zlatan’s final major tournament, so there will be some pressure for the Swedes to perform. But apart from Ibrahimovic, who do they have?
Portugal are in a similar boat, often relying on a certain Cristiano Ronaldo to salvage results. However they have a remarkable record at the European Championships, and have reached the quarter-finals at least every time since 1996. Regardless, it’s still difficult to look past Ronaldo and expect glory without him.
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The Rest
Obviously there are eight teams still to be mentioned, and the reasoning for this is that they’re the satellite teams of Euro 2016. It’d be disrespectful to say that they’re merely making up the numbers, but there are some teams that aren’t likely to ruffle too many feathers.
It doesn’t seem possible that Switzerland could cause a huge upset, and are unlikely to progress further than the first knockout round, despite flavour of the month Granit Xhaka’s influence. And in Group A also sits Romania, but the odds of them outplaying the French and Swiss seems unlikely. Group B houses the powerhouse Russia, but seldom do they perform when it comes to it, and 2016 is unlikely to be any exception.
The battle between Ukraine and Poland will likely decide who joins Germany out of Group C, but realistically neither will pose any further threat, despite the Yarmolenkos and Lewandoskis available. Likewise the Czech Republic and Turkey. Both teams have obvious talent in their ranks, but it’d take a complete miracle for them to overhaul Spain in their group, and possibly even Croatia.
Finally, Hungary make up Group F, and apart from perhaps Albania, are surely the weakest side in France. The squad contains no household names or players that have really ploughed their trade consistently at the highest level, so although it’s interesting that this is their first European Championship since 1972, their aging squad will likely go home early. But we said that about Greece didn’t we?